Seat Projection Model
Projected seat outcomes for Reform UK under different polling scenarios, using uniform national swing from the 2024 General Election baseline. Includes analysis of Reform's 5 held seats and key target constituencies.
Model limitations: Uniform national swing (UNS) is a simplified model. It does not account for local incumbency effects, tactical voting, or constituency-level variation. MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) models such as those produced by YouGov and Electoral Calculus are more accurate but require full crosstab data. These projections should be treated as indicative, not predictive. The next General Election is not due until 2029.
Projected Seats by Scenario
Broadly similar to 2024 result — FPTP limits Reform despite high vote share
Reform begins winning seats in Leave-heavy constituencies in the North and Midlands
Hypothetical — if Jan 2026 peak had been a GE. Reform would be largest party but no majority
Below 2024 result — Reform loses 3 of 5 seats, Tories partially recover
FPTP Disproportionality: 2024 GE
Reform UK won 14.3% of votes but only 0.8% of seats (5/650). This is the most extreme disproportionality of any major party in 2024. Source: Electoral Commission.
- Vote share %
- Seats won
The FPTP effect on Reform: Under proportional representation, Reform UK's 14.3% vote share in 2024 would have yielded approximately 93 seats. Under FPTP, they won 5. This structural disadvantage means Reform UK's parliamentary influence is severely constrained regardless of their vote share — unless that share exceeds ~35% and is geographically concentrated.
Reform UK's Key Seats
Current 5 held seats plus key target constituencies, with 2024 result and current projected vote share based on uniform swing from current polling. Source: Electoral Commission, ElectaMeter.
| Constituency | MP / Status | 2024 Majority | 2024 Reform % | Projected % | Assessment | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clacton | Nigel Farage | +8,405 | 46.2% | 38.1% | Reform hold | LOW |
| Boston & Skegness | Richard Tice | +5,408 | 42.1% | 35.2% | Reform hold | LOW |
| Runcorn & Helsby | Sarah Pochin (by-election) | +6 | 38.7% | 32.1% | Marginal — Labour target | HIGH |
| Ashfield | Lee Anderson | +4,507 | 41.3% | 34.8% | Reform hold | MEDIUM |
| South Basildon & East Thurrock | James McMurdock | +98 | 35.2% | 28.9% | Highly marginal — Labour target | HIGH |
| Great Yarmouth | N/A (target) | -1,200 | 34.8% | 28.1% | Labour hold | MEDIUM |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | N/A (target) | -890 | 33.1% | 27.4% | Labour hold | MEDIUM |