Seat Projection Model
Projected seat outcomes for Reform UK under different polling scenarios, using uniform national swing from the 2024 General Election baseline. Includes analysis of Reform's 5 held seats and key target constituencies.
Model limitations: Uniform national swing (UNS) is a simplified model. It does not account for local incumbency effects, tactical voting, or constituency-level variation. MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) models such as those produced by YouGov and Electoral Calculus are more accurate but require full crosstab data. These projections should be treated as indicative, not predictive. The next General Election is not due until 2029.
Projected Seats by Scenario
April 2026 Politpro aggregation (25.7%) and latest polls — Reform begins winning seats in Leave-heavy constituencies
If polling stabilises at Mar 2026 levels — Reform begins winning seats in Leave-heavy areas
Hypothetical — if Jan 2026 peak had been a GE. Reform would be largest party but no majority
If polling continues to fall — Reform loses 4 of 5 seats, Tories recover further
FPTP Disproportionality: 2024 GE
Reform UK won 14.3% of votes but only 0.8% of seats (5/650). The Green Party won 6.7% of votes but only 4 seats (0.6% of seats) — under proportional representation they would have won ~44 seats. Both parties are severely penalised by FPTP. Source: House of Commons Library / Electoral Commission.
- Vote share %
- Seats won
The FPTP effect on Reform and the Greens: Under proportional representation, Reform UK's 14.3% vote share in 2024 would have yielded approximately 93 seats; they won 5. The Green Party's 6.7% would have yielded approximately 44 seats; they won 4. Both parties are structurally penalised by FPTP — but for opposite reasons. Reform's vote is geographically dispersed across Leave-heavy constituencies; the Greens' vote is concentrated in urban and university seats. The Green Party won its first by-election in February 2026 (Gorton and Denton, 40.7%), giving them 5 MPs. Source: House of Commons Library.
Reform UK's Key Seats
Current 5 held seats plus key target constituencies, with 2024 result and current projected vote share based on uniform swing from current polling. Source: Electoral Commission, ElectaMeter.
| Constituency | MP / Status | 2024 Majority | 2024 Reform % | Projected % | Assessment | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clacton | Nigel Farage | +8,405 | 46.2% | 36.8% | Reform hold | LOW |
| Boston & Skegness | Richard Tice | +5,408 | 42.1% | 33.4% | Reform hold | LOW |
| Ashfield | Lee Anderson | +4,507 | 41.3% | 32.9% | Reform hold | MEDIUM |
| South Basildon & East Thurrock | James McMurdock | +98 | 35.2% | 31.4% | Highly marginal — Reform hold but vulnerable | HIGH |
| Runcorn & Helsby | Sarah Pochin (by-election) | +6 | 38.7% | 33.1% | Marginal — Reform hold but vulnerable | HIGH |
| Great Yarmouth | N/A (target) | -1,200 | 34.8% | 30.1% | Labour hold but vulnerable to Reform | MEDIUM |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | N/A (target) | -890 | 33.1% | 28.9% | Labour hold but vulnerable to Reform | MEDIUM |
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