Reform Intelligence
Module 01 — Polling Trends

The Reform Bubble: A Data Analysis

Tracking Reform UK's vote share trajectory from August 2024 to the present, using composite averages from all major UK polling firms.

Source: ElectaMeter API · electameter.co.uk · Updated daily
Cached data
Peak vote share
49%
January 2026

Highest ever recorded for Reform UK across all pollsters

Decline in 2 months
−23pp
Jan → Mar 2026

From 49% to 26% — the sharpest 2-month fall in Reform UK's polling history

March 2026 average
26%
Based on 19 polls

Still above 2024 general election result (14.3%) but well below peak

All-Party Voting Intention, Aug 2024 – Mar 2026

Aug '24Sep '24Nov '24Dec '24Jan '25Feb '25Mar '25Apr '25May '25Jun '25Jul '25Aug '25Sep '25Nov '25Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '260%20%40%75%Peak
Source: ElectaMeter API · electameter.co.uk/api/historical

Individual Polls: March 2026

PollsterDateReformLabourConLibDemGreenn
Find Out Now27 Mar 202624%16%18%12%20%3,092
BMG Research26 Mar 202628%19%18%12%16%1,507
Find Out Now25 Mar 202625%16%16%10%19%2,948
Verian23 Mar 202625%15%18%14%20%1,236
YouGov23 Mar 202623%19%17%13%18%2,435
More in Common22 Mar 202627%19%20%14%12%2,408
Opinium20 Mar 202627%21%17%12%15%2,050
Find Out Now18 Mar 202625%16%17%11%19%2,549
More in Common16 Mar 202628%20%21%12%13%2,402
YouGov16 Mar 202625%17%17%14%19%2,329
Techne12 Mar 202627%17%18%14%17%1,639
Ipsos11 Mar 202628%21%17%9%17%1,062
Find Out Now11 Mar 202626%15%17%11%21%2,793
YouGov10 Mar 202623%17%19%14%19%2,246
Focaldata10 Mar 202627%20%18%14%13%1,086
More in Common9 Mar 202630%22%19%13%11%2,112
Opinium6 Mar 202629%21%16%10%14%2,050
Find Out Now6 Mar 202627%15%17%10%21%2,548
JL Partners5 Mar 202627%20%20%12%14%2,573
March Average26%18%18%12%17%
Source: ElectaMeter API · electameter.co.uk/api/polls

Reform UK Vote Share by Pollster (March 2026)

Find Out NowBMG ResearchFind Out NowVerianYouGovMore in CommonOpiniumFind Out NowMore in CommonYouGov0%10%20%30%40%Avg 26%
Methodology Note

Historical monthly averages are computed by ElectaMeter as composite averages across all major polling firms active in that month. Individual poll figures are taken directly from the ElectaMeter API without adjustment. No house effect correction or weighting has been applied by this dashboard — raw figures are presented as published. The 2024 general election result for Reform UK was 14.3% of the popular vote (4 seats won). Source: electameter.co.uk