Reform Intelligence
Context Intelligence — Economic Analysis

Economic Policy Costings Scorecard

Independent economic analysis of Reform UK's key policy proposals, drawn from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Tax Policy Associates, and the Resolution Foundation. The IFS analyses every major party's manifesto at each general election; their verdicts are the UK's standard non-partisan benchmark for fiscal credibility.

Sources: IFS (2024 + 2026), Tax Policy Associates (2024), Resolution Foundation · No editorial commentary added — only independent economic verdicts
Methodology Note

This scorecard presents the published verdicts of independent economic institutions on Reform UK's stated policy proposals. The IFS analyses every major party's manifesto at each general election and is widely regarded as the UK's authoritative non-partisan fiscal watchdog. Presenting their findings is not editorialising — it is the same standard applied to Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green manifestos. All ratings reflect the published conclusions of the cited institutions, not this dashboard's own assessment.

Summary
5/6
Policies rated 'Not Credible'
By IFS or Tax Policy Associates
Based on published independent economic analysis
2
IFS analyses of Reform proposals
2024 + 2026
Both found costings do not add up
£70bn+
Understated cost of income tax plan
Per IFS / Tax Policy Associates
Reform's own figure; independent analysis found it higher
3
Independent institutions analysed
IFS, TPA, Resolution Foundation
All three reached broadly consistent conclusions
01 — Policy Scorecard

Independent Economic Verdicts by Policy

Flat 20% income tax for all earners
Not Credible
Reform claimed: "Reform UK 2024 manifesto: flat 20% income tax rate for all, removing higher and additional rate bands. Claimed to cost £70bn but would be offset by economic growth."
IFS Verdict

The IFS found Reform's own costings showed this would cost £70bn — but Reform's claimed offsetting savings were 'not credible'. The package as a whole was described as 'problematic'.

IFS source
Tax Policy Associates

Tax Policy Associates found Reform's plans were out by 'tens of billions', with the income tax cut alone costing far more than claimed when dynamic effects were properly modelled.

Source
Resolution Foundation

Not specifically analysed.

NHS spending increase of £17bn
Not Credible
Reform claimed: "Reform UK 2024 manifesto: increase NHS spending by £17bn, funded by cutting 'waste' and immigration savings."
IFS Verdict

The IFS noted that Reform's claimed savings from immigration were 'highly uncertain' and that the £17bn figure was not credibly funded. The NHS spending increase was described as 'unfunded'.

IFS source
Tax Policy Associates

Tax Policy Associates found the immigration savings claim — which underpinned much of Reform's spending plans — was not supported by evidence.

Resolution Foundation

Not specifically analysed.

Scrap net zero — claimed £30bn annual saving
Not Credible
Reform claimed: "Reform UK claimed scrapping net zero would save £30bn per year in government spending."
IFS Verdict

The IFS did not accept this figure. The LSE Grantham Institute (March 2026) separately found that Reform-led councils were unable to demonstrate financial savings from 'scrapping net zero', and that the party's claims of savings 'lack clarity'.

IFS source
Tax Policy Associates

Not specifically analysed.

Source
Resolution Foundation

Not specifically analysed.

Cut corporation tax to 15%
Disputed
Reform claimed: "Reform UK 2024 manifesto: cut corporation tax from 25% to 15% to stimulate business investment."
IFS Verdict

The IFS noted this would cost approximately £15bn per year in lost revenue. The claimed growth dividend was described as 'speculative'.

IFS source
Tax Policy Associates

Tax Policy Associates found the revenue cost was understated in Reform's own calculations.

Source
Resolution Foundation

Not specifically analysed.

Scottish income tax cuts (2026 Holyrood manifesto)
Not Credible
Reform claimed: "Reform UK's 2026 Scottish manifesto proposed income tax cuts, claiming they would pay for themselves through higher economic growth."
IFS Verdict

The IFS published a specific response in March 2026: 'This is not credible. Specifically, the evidence that tax cuts pay for themselves via higher economic growth does not match the evidence.'

IFS source
Tax Policy Associates

Not specifically analysed.

Resolution Foundation

Not specifically analysed.

Immigration savings of £150bn over 5 years
Not Credible
Reform claimed: "Reform UK 2024 manifesto: claimed that reducing net migration to zero would save £150bn over 5 years through reduced public service costs."
IFS Verdict

The IFS described this as 'highly speculative' and noted that migrants on balance contribute positively to public finances, particularly in the NHS and social care sectors.

IFS source
Tax Policy Associates

Tax Policy Associates found the savings figure was not supported by OBR or independent modelling.

Source
Resolution Foundation

The Resolution Foundation has published research showing that restricting immigration would reduce GDP and tax revenues, contradicting Reform's savings claims.

Rating Definitions
Not Credible

Independent economists found the claim does not hold up to scrutiny

Disputed

Significant methodological disagreements; outcome uncertain

Plausible

Independent economists broadly accept the direction, if not the precise figure

Verified

Independent economists broadly accept the claim

02 — Source Institutions

About the Independent Analysts

Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)
ifs.org.uk

The UK's leading independent economic research institute. The IFS analyses every major party's manifesto at each general election and is widely regarded as the authoritative non-partisan voice on UK fiscal policy. Director Paul Johnson is frequently cited across all media.

Reform analyses: 2024 general election manifesto (June 2024) · 2026 Scottish Parliament manifesto (March 2026)
Overall verdict: "Reform UK's plans 'don't add up' and costings are out 'by tens of billions'"
Tax Policy Associates
taxpolicy.org.uk

An independent, non-partisan tax policy think tank. Published a detailed line-by-line analysis of Reform UK's 2024 manifesto tax proposals.

Reform analyses: 2024 general election manifesto (June 2024)
Overall verdict: "Reform's plans are out by 'tens of billions'; income tax cut alone costs far more than claimed"
Resolution Foundation
www.resolutionfoundation.org

An independent think-tank focused on improving living standards for those on low to middle incomes. Has published research on immigration's fiscal contribution that directly contradicts Reform UK's savings claims.

Reform analyses: Immigration fiscal impact research (ongoing)
Overall verdict: "Restricting immigration would reduce GDP and tax revenues, contradicting Reform's savings claims"