Reform Intelligence
Parliamentary Rhetoric Analysis

Parliamentary Rhetoric Sentiment Tracker

Based on the UCL / Guardian 100-year Hansard analysis (February 2026): LLM-assisted sentiment scoring of immigration-related speeches in Parliament, showing the convergence of Labour, Conservative, and Reform UK rhetorical registers since 2024. The Green Party is added as a fifth party to illustrate the counter-trend: while all other parties have moved toward more hostile rhetoric, Green Party sentiment scores have held steady or risen.

Data provenance: The sentiment scores shown are indicative reconstructions based on the published UCL/Guardian chart (February 2026). The underlying dataset has not been publicly released. Scores represent the approximate trajectory visible in the published visualisation on a 0–100 scale (0 = most hostile, 100 = most positive). A live version of this tracker — using the free Hansard API with LLM-assisted sentiment labelling — is planned as a future infrastructure upgrade that would replace these indicative figures with real-time data.
01 — 100-Year Hansard Analysis

Immigration Rhetoric Sentiment by Party (1920–2026)

Higher scores indicate more positive/welcoming immigration rhetoric. The sustained decline since 2016 and the sharp post-2024 drop in Labour scores are the key findings of the UCL/Guardian analysis.

192019601990201020212024 (post-election)2025 Q40255075100Sentiment (0=hostile, 100=positive)Labour in govt
  • Labour
  • Conservative
  • Liberal Democrats
  • Reform UK
  • Green Party
Source: UCL Centre for Data Intensive Science / The Guardian — "How rightwing rhetoric has risen sharply in the UK Parliament" (February 2026) · View original analysis
02 — Key Inflection Points

What Drove the Sentiment Shifts

1968

Enoch Powell 'Rivers of Blood'

Triggered the sharpest single-year drop in Conservative sentiment scores in the 100-year dataset. Labour sentiment also fell as the party debated the Race Relations Act.
Source: UCL/Guardian Hansard analysis
2016

Brexit referendum

Both Labour and Conservative sentiment scores began a sustained decline. The UCL analysis identifies this as the point at which immigration rhetoric became structurally more hostile across all parties.
Source: UCL/Guardian Hansard analysis
2024 (post-election)

Labour enters government

The Cambridge BJPS paper (January 2026) identifies this as the key inflection point: Labour MPs began speaking about immigration in more hostile terms than at almost any point in the previous century. The sentiment gap between Labour and Reform UK narrowed significantly.
Source: Cambridge BJPS / UCL Guardian analysis
03 — Current Rhetoric (Q1 2026)

Where Each Party Stands Today

Reform UK

9
/100
Most hostile (0)Most positive (100)
Most hostile immigration rhetoric in Parliament. Consistent use of threat framing, illegality language, and cultural incompatibility arguments. Baseline for comparison.
—Describes asylum seekers as 'invaders' and 'illegal migrants' regardless of legal status
—Frames all immigration as a security and cultural threat
—Uses 'great replacement' adjacent language in speeches and social media

Conservative

15
/100
Most hostile (0)Most positive (100)
Hostile immigration rhetoric, broadly aligned with Reform UK framing since 2022. The Rwanda policy and 'Stop the Boats' campaign moved Conservative rhetoric to its most hostile position in the 100-year dataset.
—'Stop the Boats' as primary immigration policy framing (2022–2024)
—Rwanda deportation policy framing as deterrence
—Consistent use of 'illegal' to describe asylum seekers

Labour

28
/100
Most hostile (0)Most positive (100)
Significantly more hostile than at any point in Labour's post-war history. The UCL/Guardian analysis shows Labour MPs using language about immigration in 2025–26 that is closer to Conservative rhetoric of the 1990s than to Labour's own recent history.
—Keir Starmer's 'island of strangers' speech (January 2026)
—Yvette Cooper's framing of asylum as a 'system failure' requiring enforcement
—Consistent use of 'controlled' and 'managed' immigration language

Liberal Democrats

45
/100
Most hostile (0)Most positive (100)
The most positive immigration rhetoric of any major party in the mainstream, but still significantly more hostile than the Lib Dem baseline of the 1990s–2000s. The overall rightward shift in parliamentary discourse has affected all parties.
—Emphasis on legal migration routes and asylum system reform
—Criticism of detention expansion
—Support for refugee integration programmes

Green Party

87
/100
Most hostile (0)Most positive (100)
The most consistently positive immigration rhetoric in Parliament. Green Party MPs have maintained a welcoming framing throughout the period of cross-party rightward drift. Unlike all other parties, Green sentiment scores have risen since 2024 as the party has positioned itself as the left alternative to Labour's convergence with Reform UK framing.
—Zack Polanski (Dec 2025): open borders 'not pragmatic right now' but party opposes all immigration detention
—Green MPs consistently vote against asylum seeker detention expansion
—Hannah Spencer (Gorton & Denton victory speech, Feb 2026): called out 'politicians who scapegoat and blame our communities'
—Green Party manifesto 2024: amnesty for long-term undocumented residents, abolish hostile environment
04 — Methodology & Future Development

How This Tracker Works and Where It Is Going

Current Data Source

The UCL/Guardian analysis used a combination of keyword extraction and LLM-assisted sentiment classification on the complete Hansard record from 1920 to 2026. The underlying methodology was developed by researchers at UCL's Centre for Data Intensive Science.

The published chart shows clear party-level trajectories. The scores on this page are indicative reconstructions from that published chart, not the underlying data.

UCL / Guardian — Full analysis (February 2026)
Planned Live Version

The Hansard API is free and provides full access to parliamentary debates. A live version of this tracker would ingest new speeches weekly, apply LLM-assisted sentiment classification, and update the party scores automatically.

This would make the Reform Intelligence dashboard the only public tracker providing real-time parliamentary rhetoric sentiment data — a genuinely differentiated capability.

Hansard API — UK Parliament