Devolved Nations Intelligence
Scotland & Devolved Nations
Reform UK's polling and policy positions in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Devolved elections in May 2026 (Scotland & Wales) provide crucial context for understanding Reform's trajectory beyond Westminster.
Sources: ElectaMeter · IFS (Mar 2026) · Updated monthly
Scotland: Holyrood Polling Trend
- Reform UK
- SNP
- Labour
- Greens
Wales: Senedd Polling Trend
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Greens
Northern Ireland: Westminster Polling Trend
- Sinn Féin
- DUP
- Labour
- Reform UK
Devolved Nations Context
| Nation | Parliament | Next Election | Reform Polling (Apr 2026) | Peak Polling | Key Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) | May 2026 | 17% (April 2026) | 22% (January 2026) | Reform UK was polling second in Scotland in January 2026, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives. Recovered slightly in April 2026 to 17% but remains below peak. Scottish Greens at 11% — strong performance in Holyrood context. |
| Wales | Senedd Cymru | May 2026 | 19% (April 2026) | 28% (January 2026) | Reform UK has been polling strongly in Wales (19% April 2026), where the Conservatives have collapsed. Nathan Gill — the Reform UK figure convicted of pro-Russia bribery — was previously a prominent figure in Welsh politics as a UKIP MEP. |
| Northern Ireland | Stormont Assembly | 2027 (scheduled) | 13% (April 2026, GB polling only) | N/A | Reform UK does not stand candidates in Northern Ireland. The political landscape is dominated by DUP, Sinn Féin, Alliance, and UUP. Reform UK's Brexit positions have been cited in Northern Ireland political debates but have limited local resonance. |
Holyrood 2026: Seat Projection Scenarios
Current polling (17%)
10–14
Based on April 2026 polling; regional list seats likely
Peak polling (22%)
18–25
Based on January 2026 polling; would make Reform third party
England-mirrored collapse
3–6
If Scotland mirrors England's polling trajectory
IFS Analysis: Reform UK's Scottish Manifesto (March 2026)
Income tax cuts
Reform claim: Reform UK's 2026 Scottish manifesto proposed income tax cuts, claiming they would pay for themselves through higher economic growth.
IFS verdict: This is not credible. Specifically, the evidence that tax cuts pay for themselves via higher economic growth does not match the evidence.
"This is not credible. Specifically, the evidence that tax cuts pay for themselves via higher economic growth does not match the evidence."
IFS — March 2026Abolish the Scottish Parliament
Reform claim: Reform UK has called for the abolition of the Scottish Parliament, arguing it is a waste of money and a driver of separatism.
IFS verdict: The IFS did not analyse this specific proposal but noted that Reform UK's Scottish manifesto was 'internally inconsistent' — promising both to abolish Holyrood and to implement policies that are devolved matters.
"Reform UK's Scottish manifesto contains proposals that are devolved matters, which they simultaneously propose to abolish the power to implement."
IFS — March 2026Scrap Scottish NHS waiting list targets
Reform claim: Reform UK proposed scrapping NHS waiting list targets in Scotland, arguing they distort clinical priorities.
IFS verdict: Not specifically analysed by IFS. Health policy in Scotland is fully devolved.
IFS — March 2026Note on devolved elections: Devolved elections in May 2026 (Scotland & Wales) will provide crucial data on Reform UK's ability to translate Westminster polling into seats under different electoral systems. Scottish Parliament and Senedd use proportional representation, which typically benefits smaller parties more than FPTP.
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