Scotland & Devolved Nations Tracker
Reform UK's expansion into Scotland and Wales represents a more nuanced picture than the England-only polling collapse narrative. Reform was polling second in Scotland in January 2026. The IFS published a specific critique of Reform's Scottish manifesto in March 2026. With Holyrood and Senedd elections in May 2026, this module tracks the devolved dimension of Reform UK's political trajectory.
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention (2024–2026)
- Reform UK
- SNP
- Labour
- Conservative
Reform UK in Each Devolved Nation
Reform UK was polling second in Scotland in January 2026, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives. The March 2026 polling collapse has been mirrored in Scotland, though from a lower base.
ElectaMeter / BBC ScotlandReform UK has been polling strongly in Wales, where the Conservatives have collapsed. Nathan Gill — the Reform UK figure convicted of pro-Russia bribery — was previously a prominent figure in Welsh politics as a UKIP MEP.
ElectaMeter / BBC WalesReform UK does not stand candidates in Northern Ireland. The political landscape is dominated by DUP, Sinn Féin, Alliance, and UUP. Reform UK's Brexit positions have been cited in Northern Ireland political debates.
Electoral Commission NIIFS Verdict on Reform UK's Scottish Manifesto (March 2026)
The IFS published a specific response to Reform UK's Scottish manifesto in March 2026 — the same month as this dashboard's launch. This is the most recent independent economic analysis of Reform UK's proposals.
"This is not credible. Specifically, the evidence that tax cuts pay for themselves via higher economic growth does not match the evidence."
"Reform UK's Scottish manifesto contains proposals that are devolved matters, which they simultaneously propose to abolish the power to implement."
May 2026 Holyrood Seat Scenarios
Holyrood uses the Additional Member System (AMS), which is more proportional than Westminster's FPTP. Reform UK's regional list votes could translate into seats even at lower polling levels. These are illustrative scenarios, not formal projections.
| Scenario | Projected Seats | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current polling (15%) | 8–12 | Based on March 2026 polling; regional list seats likely |
| Peak polling (22%) | 18–25 | Based on January 2026 polling; would make Reform third party |
| England-mirrored collapse | 2–5 | If Scotland mirrors England's polling trajectory |